顶刊前沿 | 《英国政治科学杂志》2020年第3期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《英国政治科学杂志》2020年第3期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 2
期刊简介
British Journal of Political Science（英国政治科学杂志）自1971年创刊并由剑桥大学出版社出版，其旨在涵盖包括包括政治理论、政治行为、公共政策和国际关系在内的政治学及相关学科（社会学，社会心理学，经济学和哲学）的前沿学术成果。期刊拥有超过40年的出版声誉，被公认为该领域的主要期刊之一。
期刊2018年影响因子为4.292，五年影响因子为3.276（在165种期刊中排名第六）。其主编包括加利福尼亚大学的Shaun Bowler、美国宾夕法尼亚州立大学的Sona Golder、英国埃塞克斯大学的Robert Johns与英国伯明翰大学的RenéLindstädt。
PART 2
期刊目录
What is Islamophobia? Disentangling Citizens’ Feelings Toward Ethnicity, Religion and Religiosity Using a Survey Experiment
何为伊斯兰恐惧症？在调查实验的基础上梳理公众对种族、宗教和虔诚的感知
The Causal Effect of Radical Right Success on Mainstream Parties’ Policy Positions: A Regression Discontinuity Approach
极右主义在主流政党政策立场上的成功的因果效应：一种回归不连续性方法
Are All ‘Birthers’ Conspiracy Theorists? On the Relationship Between Conspiratorial Thinking and Political Orientations
所有的“出生地论者”都是阴谋论者吗？论阴谋思维与政治取向的关系
Perceived Discrimination and Political Behavior
可感歧视与政治行为
Does Media Coverage Drive Public Support for UKIP or Does Public Support for UKIP Drive Media Coverage?
是媒体报道推动了公众对英国独立党的支持，抑或相反？
Political Leadership in the Media: Gender Bias in Leader Stereotypes during Campaign and Routine Times
媒体中的政治领导力：竞选和日常生活中领导人刻板印象中的性别偏见
Does threatening their franchise make registered voters more likely to participate? Evidence from an aborted voter purge
威胁他们的选举权是否会让注册选民更有可能参与投票？来自流产的选民清洗的证据
Investor Rights versus Human Rights: Do Bilateral Investment Treaties Tilt the Scale?
投资者权利与人权：双边投资协定决定了二者的权重吗？
Setting the Party Agenda: Interest Groups, Voters and Issue Attention
设定政党的议程：利益集团、选民和议题关注
A Function-Sensitive Approach to the Political Legitimacy of Global Governance
一种对全球治理的政治合法性具有职能敏感性的方法
Launching Revolution: Social Media and the Egyptian Uprising’s First Movers
发动革命:社交媒体和埃及起义的第一批推动者
Citizen Duty and the Ethical Power of Communities: Mixed-Method Evidence from East Asia
公民义务与社区的伦理力量:来自东亚的混合方法证据
Guns or Money? Defense Co-operation and Bilateral Lending as Coevolving Networks
枪支或钱?作为共同进化网络的防务合作和双边借贷
Obstacle to Peace? Ethnic Geography and Effectiveness of Peacekeeping 17
和平的障碍?种族地理和维持和平的有效性
PART 3
精选译文
01 何为伊斯兰恐惧症？在调查实验的基础上梳理公众对种族、宗教和虔诚的感知
【题目】
What is Islamophobia? Disentangling Citizens’ Feelings Toward Ethnicity, Religion and Religiosity Using a Survey Experiment
【作者】
MARC HELBLING, University of Bamberg
RICHARD TRAUNMÜLLER, Goethe University Frankfurt
【摘要】
在西方民主国家，公众对穆斯林移民的看法与一些极为迫切的难题有着密不可分的关系。为了加深对当今“伊斯兰恐惧症究竟为何”的理解，如：它是否是一种基于移民者种族背景、宗教身份抑或特定宗教行为的反感，本项研究于2015年夏天在英国进行了一次具有代表性的调查实验。结果显示，穆斯林移民本身并不比基督徒移民被更多地负面看待。相反，研究发现公众对穆斯林移民的担忧首要来源于原教旨主义形式的宗教虔诚的排斥。这表明了基于对移民问题的自由派支持者和保守派批评者的二元区分的常见解释需要被重新评估。尽管政治左翼和文化自由派相较于右翼和保守派对移民有着更加积极的态度，但前者也同样是宗教团体的严厉批评者。本研究的结论是，当今很大一部分在穆斯林移民问题上的政治争论与以下这一双重反对相关：与其说是移民对当地人、甚或是穆斯林对基督徒，不如说是政治自由主义对宗教原教旨主义。
What citizens think about Muslim immigrants has important implications for some of the most pressing challenges facing Western democracies. To advance contemporary understanding of what ‘Islamophobia’ really is – for example, whether it is a dislike based on immigrants’ ethnic background, religious identity or specific religious behaviors – this study fielded a representative online survey experiment in the UK in summer 2015. The results suggest that Muslim immigrants are not per se viewed more negatively than Christian immigrants. Instead, the study finds evidence that citizens’ uneasiness with Muslim immigration is first and foremost the result of a rejection of fundamentalist forms of religiosity. This suggests that common explanations, which are based on simple dichotomies between liberal supporters and conservative critics of immigration, need to be re-evaluated. While the politically left and culturally liberal have more positive attitudes toward immigrants than right-leaning individuals and conservatives, they are also far more critical of religious groups. The study concludes that a large part of the current political controversy over Muslim immigration is related to this double opposition: it is less about immigrants versus natives or even Muslim versus Christians than about political liberalism versus religious fundamentalism.
02 极右主义在主流政党政策立场上的成功的因果效应：一种回归不连续性方法
【题目】
The Causal Effect of Radical Right Success on Mainstream Parties’ Policy Positions: A Regression Discontinuity Approach
【作者】
TARIK ABOU-CHADI, University of Zurich
WERNER KRAUSE, WZB Berlin Social Science Center
【摘要】
本文探究了极右翼政党的成功如何影响主流政党的政策立场。我们采用了一种回归不连续性方法，使我们能够将主流政党的立场变化归因于极右翼势力，而不受民意的潜在干扰。利用选举门槛的不同所创造出的外生变量，我们实证论证了极右主义的成功的确对主流政党的立场造成了影响。这一点既适用于主流左翼政党，也适用于主流右翼政党。这些发现丰富了政党竞争领域的文献资料，因为它们指出不仅只是民意、其他政党的行为在解释政党政策转变过程中也扮演着至关重要的角色。
This article investigates how the success of radical right parties affects the policy positions of mainstream parties. We do this using a regression discontinuity approach that allows us to causally attribute mainstream parties’ positional changes to radical right strength independent of public opinion as a potential confounder. Making use of exogenous variation created through differences in electoral thresholds, we empirically demonstrate that radical right success, indeed, causally affects mainstream parties’ positions. This is true for mainstream left as well as mainstream right parties. These findings make an important contribution to the broader literature on party competition as they indicate that other parties’ behavior and not only public opinion plays a crucial role in explaining parties’ policy shift.
03 所有的“出生地论者”都是阴谋论者吗？论阴谋思维与政治取向的关系
【题目】
Are All ‘Birthers’ Conspiracy Theorists? On the Relationship Between Conspiratorial Thinking and Political Orientations
【作者】
ADAM M. ENDERS, University of Louisville
STEVEN M. SMALLPAGE, Stetson University
ROBERT N. LUPTON, University of Connecticut
【摘要】
尽管对于阴谋论和相信该论调的人的研究的热度在近期有所回升，但有关阴谋论的信念与取向的测量以及对于明确的政治态度与行为的阴谋论心态所产生的后果，仍然存在着很大的不确定性。首先，我们利用2012年全美选举研究（ANES）的数据证明，对各种特定阴谋论的信念既是阴谋论思维和左/右政治倾向的共同趋势的产物，但又有所不同。接下来，我们使用包括对阴谋论思维的一般测量的独特的数据，来探究特定阴谋信念的预测因素。我们发现，在预测“出生地”信念时，党派和意识形态的自我认同比任何其他变量都更为重要；而阴谋论思维在预测有关肯尼迪遇刺和9/11恐怖袭击的阴谋论信念时最为重要。
While research on conspiracy theories and those who believe them has recently undergone a renaissance, there still exists a great deal of uncertainty about the measurement of conspiratorial beliefs and orientations, and the consequences of a conspiratorial mindset for expressly political attitudes and behaviors. We first demonstrate, using data from the 2012 American National Election Study, that beliefs in a variety of specific conspiracy theories are simultaneously, but differentially, the product of both a general tendency toward conspiratorial thinking and left/right political orientations. Next, we employ unique data including a general measure of conspiratorial thinking to explore the predictors of specific conspiracy beliefs. We find that partisan and ideological self-identifications are more important than any other variable in predicting ‘birther’ beliefs, while conspiratorial thinking is most important in predicting conspiracy beliefs about the assassination of John F. Kennedy and the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
04 可感歧视与政治行为
【题目】
Perceived Discrimination and Political Behavior
【作者】
KASSRA A.R. OSKOOII, University of Delaware
【摘要】
不同的歧视经历会催生不同的政治行为吗？与受到维护平等和公平的民主规范的政治行为者或机构的歧视相比，个体在日常生活中受到同龄人或社区成员的歧视与前者有何区别？本研究跨越学科界限，对歧视与政治行为的关系提出了一个新的理论视角。具体来说，在考察英国少数族裔的行为时，本研究区分了社会性（人际）歧视和政治性（系统）歧视。结果表明，尽管政治性歧视的经历可能会促使个人出于实质或表达性目的参与主流政治，但这一结论却不一定适用于那些经历过社会性排斥的人。本研究的主要目的是进一步强调歧视的复杂性和多维性，并鼓励进一步分析不同类型的歧视如何影响少数族裔的公民和政治行为。
Can different experiences with discrimination produce divergent political behaviors? Does it make a difference whether individuals are discriminated against by their peers or community members in the course of everyday life as opposed to political actors or institutions tasked with upholding democratic norms of equality and fairness? Crossing disciplinary boundaries, this study proposes a new theoretical perspective regarding the relationship between discrimination and political behavior. Specifically, it distinguishes between societal (interpersonal) and political (systematic) discrimination when examining the behaviors of racial and ethnic minorities in Great Britain. The results illustrate that although experiences of political discrimination may motivate individuals to take part in mainstream politics for substantive or expressive purposes, the same conclusion cannot necessarily be drawn for those who experience societal rejection. The principal aim of this study is to further highlight the complex and multidimensional nature of discrimination, and to encourage further analyses of how different types of discrimination may impact the civic and political behaviors of minority groups.
05 是媒体报道推动了公众对英国独立党的支持，抑或相反？
【题目】
Does Media Coverage Drive Public Support for UKIP or Does Public Support for UKIP Drive Media Coverage?
【作者】
JUSTIN MURPHY, University of Southampton
DANIEL DEVINE, University of Southampton
【摘要】
此前的研究表明，媒体的关注可能会增加民粹右翼政党的支持率，但现存的证据大多局限于比例代表制，而在如此制度下，这种效果最有可能出现。与此同时，在英国的简单多数票当选制度中，一场围绕媒体是否过分报道右翼民粹主义政党英国独立党(UKIP)的政治和监管争论正在进行。本研究采用混合方法的研究设计，将调查对英国独立党的支持和媒体报道间的因果动态作为一个特别有价值的案例。向量自回归模型利用2004年1月至2017年4月的月度累计时间序列数据，为研究提供了新的证据，即与媒体报道推动政党支持而非相反的模型相一致。文章指出，在英国独立党的支持率停滞或下降的关键时期，媒体报道增加，公众支持率也随之上升。研究结果显示，即使是在最不支持这种效果的国家制度环境中，媒体的报道也可能以一种实质上不容忽视的方式推动公众对右翼民粹主义政党的支持，即便这种支持程度无法还原到以往的公众支持水平。这一发现对英国的政治辩论具有启示意义，也可能对其他自由民主国家产生影响。
Previous research suggests media attention may increase support for populist right-wing parties, but extant evidence is mostly limited to proportional representation systems in which such an effect would be most likely. At the same time, in the United Kingdom’s first-past-the-post system, an ongoing political and regulatory debate revolves around whether the media give disproportionate coverage to the populist right-wing UK Independence Party (UKIP). This study uses a mixed-methods research design to investigate the causal dynamics of UKIP support and media coverage as an especially valuable case. Vector autoregression, using monthly, aggregate time-series data from January 2004 to April 2017, provides new evidence consistent with a model in which media coverage drives party support, but not vice versa. The article identifies key periods in which stagnating or declining support for UKIP is followed by increases in media coverage and subsequent increases in public support. The findings show that media coverage may drive public support for right-wing populist parties in a substantively non-trivial fashion that is irreducible to previous levels of public support, even in a national institutional environment least supportive of such an effect. The findings have implications for political debates in the UK and potentially other liberal democracies.
06 媒体中的政治领导力：竞选和日常生活中领导人刻板印象中的性别偏见
【题目】
Political Leadership in the Media: Gender Bias in Leader Stereotypes during Campaign and Routine Times
【作者】
LOES AALDERING, University of Vienna
DAPHNE JOANNA VAN DER PAS, University of Amsterdam
【摘要】
本文研究了政治领袖在媒体形象中的性别差异，这一差异起始于某种预期，即男性政治家被更多地视为带有男性领袖这一刻板印象的特质，而女性政治家则没有这种优势。这些性别差异在非竞选期间被认为尤为明显。为了测试这些预期，我们对2006年9月至2012年9月荷兰所有全国性报纸进行了大规模的自动内容分析。研究结果显示，尽管对男性和女性领导人的刻板印象解释了领导特质中性别偏见的大部分差异，但媒体在领导特质方面对男性政治家的报道总体而言更多。这些性别效应在鲜有研究的日常时期中被发现，而非在竞选中。由于对领导特质的报道有着选举影响，这种基于性别差异的报道可能导致女性在政治中的代表性不足。
This article studies gender differences in media portrayals of political leadership, starting with the expectation that male politicians are evaluated more often on traits belonging to the male leader stereotype, and that female politicians have no such advantage. These gender differences are expected to be especially pronounced during non-campaign periods. To test these expectations, a large-scale automated content analysis of all Dutch national newspapers from September 2006 to September 2012 was conducted. The results show that male politicians received more media coverage on leadership traits in general, although the male and female leader stereotypes explain most of the variation in gender bias between leadership traits. These gender effects are found during seldom-studied routine periods but not during campaigns. As leadership trait coverage has electoral consequences, this gender-differentiated coverage likely contributes to the under-representation of women in politics.
07 威胁他们的选举权是否会让注册选民更有可能参与投票？来自流产的选民清洗的证据
【题目】
Does threatening their franchise make registered voters more likely to participate? Evidence from an aborted voter purge
【作者】
DANIEL R. BIGGERS, University of California Riverside
DANIEL A. SMITH, University of Florida
【摘要】
此前的研究预测，增加投票成本的选举管理变化会降低选举参与率，但没有考虑到有部分选民将这些变化理解为侵害了他们的选举权。根据心理抗拒理论，这项研究测试了这种感知到的侵害是否反而会激活那些公民。该研究利用了美国佛罗里达州在2012年采取的多阶段努力，将可疑的非公民从选民册中清除出去，并比较了那些在登记过程中受到或未受到州政府正式质疑的可疑非公民的投票率。注册选民内的双重差分和匹配分析评估了选民所受挑战的积极、显著的参与性影响，特别是对拉美裔选民（样本的绝大多数）。对照试验表明，在之前的选举中，那些受到挑战的选民并不比那些未受到挑战的选民更有可能投票。
Prior research predicts that election administration changes that increase voting costs should decrease participation, but it fails to consider that some interpret those changes as attacking their franchise. Drawing on psychological reactance theory, this study tests whether such perceived attacks might instead activate those citizens. It leverages the State of Florida’s multi-stage effort in 2012 to purge suspected non-citizens from its voter rolls, comparing the voting rates of suspected non-citizens whose registration was and was not formally challenged by the state. Within-registrant difference-in-difference and matching analyses estimate a positive, significant participatory effect of being challenged, particularly for Hispanics (the vast majority of the sample). Placebo tests show that those challenged were no more likely than those not challenged to vote in previous elections.
02 选举式威权主义的战略起源
【题目】
The Strategic Origins of Electoral Authoritarianism
【作者】
MICHAEL K. MILLER, George Washington University
【摘要】
为什么独裁者会举行多党选举？本文认为，向选举式威权主义（EA）的过渡遵循着一种战略考量，其中，独裁者会权衡采取选举的国际动因和操纵选举的成本和风险。本文使用多项logit模型来检验前述假设，该模型以自1946年到2010年的非选举式独裁体制为样本，对向EA的转变和民主同步进行预测。该模型发现，亲民主的国际手段——特别是对民主国家通过贸易联系产生的依赖、军事联盟、国际政府组织，和援助——预示着EA被采用。使选民更容易被控制的社会经济因素，比如低平均收入和高度不平等，也是EA的前奏。相比之下，由于独裁者在民主化后会失去权力，EA的前奏主要是政权的孱弱而非国际参与或社会经济因素。模型检验结果通过洞察独裁政权的动力和民主推广所产生的意想不到的影响，展示了不同的自由化形式有着各自独特的逻辑。
Why do autocrats hold multiparty elections? This article argues that transitions to electoral authoritarianism (EA) follow a strategic calculus in which autocrats balance international incentives to adopt elections against the costs and risks of controlling them. It tests this hypothesis with a multinomial logit model that simultaneously predicts transitions to EA and democracy, using a sample of non-electoral autocracies from 1946–2010. It finds that pro-democratic international leverage – captured by dependence on democracies through trade ties, military alliances, international governmental organizations and aid – predicts EA adoption. Socio-economic factors that make voters easier to control, such as low average income and high inequality, also predict EA transition. In contrast, since democratization entails a loss of power for autocrats, it is mainly predicted by regime weakness rather than international engagement or socio-economic factors. The results demonstrate that different forms of liberalization follow distinct logics, providing insight into autocratic regime dynamics and democracy promotion’s unintended effects.
08 投资者权利与人权：双边投资协定决定了二者的权重吗？
【题目】
Investor Rights versus Human Rights: Do Bilateral Investment Treaties Tilt the Scale?
【作者】
CRISTINA BODEA, Michigan State University
FANGJIN YE, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
【摘要】
本文认为，双边投资协定（BITs）为外国投资者提供的广泛和具有法律效力的保护，恶化了发展中国家的人权实践。双边投资协定锁定在对投资者有吸引力的原始条件，这与纵向型投资流动以及投资和贸易的竞争有关，它们还限制了福利或基础设施的提供。这种锁定和限制效应是吸引外国投资的国家普遍抱怨和异议的根源。然而，双边投资协定所保护的投资者权利限制了政府对投资者让步的能力，并降低了侵犯人权的相对成本。最后，本研究认为民主政体可以减轻双边投资协定的负面影响。1981至2009年间，来自113个发展中国家的证据支持了这些假设。
This article argues that the broad and legally enforceable protection that bilateral investment treaties (BITs) offer to foreign investors worsens the human rights practices of developing countries. BITs lock in initial conditions attractive to investors that are linked to vertical investment flows and investment and trade competition. They also constrain the provision of welfare benefits or basic infrastructure. The lock-in and constraining effects are sources of popular grievance and dissent in states that host foreign investment. BIT-protected investor rights, however, limit the ability of governments to back-down vis-à-vis investors, lowering the relative cost of human rights violations. Finally, this study suggests that democratic regimes mitigate the negative effect of BITs. Evidence from 113 developing countries from 1981 to 2009 supports the hypotheses.
09 设定政党的议程：利益集团、选民和议题关注
【题目】
Setting the Party Agenda: Interest Groups, Voters and Issue Attention
【作者】
KHEIKE LÜVER，Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
【摘要】
政党会对利益集团的动员有反应吗？虽然政党对选民的反应受到了广泛关注，但人们却对利益集团如何影响政党的政策议程知之甚少。我认为，政党对利益集团的响应就像说客提供有价值的信息、竞选捐款、选举支持和个人回报一样，但是那样的政党回应是受到选民偏好的制约的。基于一种新型纵向分析，我们研究了1987至2009年间德国各政党对利益集团在11个不同议题领域和7次选举中的响应。结果表明,政党会调整其政策议程以应对利益集团的动员。此外，当利益集团与选民的关心事项相一致时，前者在影响政党政策方面会更成功。
Do political parties respond to interest group mobilization? While party responsiveness to voters has received widespread attention, little is known about how interest groups affect parties’ policy agendas. I argue that political parties respond to interest groups as lobbyists offer valuable information, campaign contributions, electoral support and personal rewards, but that party responsiveness is conditioned by voter preferences. Based on a novel longitudinal analysis studying the responsiveness of German parties to interest groups across eleven issue areas and seven elections from 1987 until 2009, it is shown that parties adjust their policy agendas in response to interest group mobilization and that interest groups are more successful in shaping party policy when their priorities coincide with those of the electorate.
10 一种对全球治理的政治合法性具有职能敏感性的方法
【题目】
A Function-Sensitive Approach to the Political Legitimacy of Global Governance
【作者】
EVA ERMAN，Stockholm University
【摘要】
这篇文章提请读者留意，在目前有关全球治理的政治合法性（职能）的文献中缺乏系统的审查。本文通过探索全球治理的政治合法性的原则的内容和正当性或取决于其所应监管的实体的功能(如法律制定、政策制定、执行、监督)这一构思来进行上述审查。本文提出了两个论点:一个是元理论的，另一个是实质的。元理论观点采用了一种对政治合法性具有职能敏感性的方法，而实质性观点则利用这种方法发展了这一有关政治合法性的解释轮廓。该解释包括了五项规范原则，它们对全球政治中的不同职能敏感，并视其而变化。
This article draws attention to an aspect that thus far has escaped systematic scrutiny in the theoretical literature on the political legitimacy of global governance – functions. It does so by exploring the idea that the content and justification of a principle of political legitimacy for global governance may depend on the function of the entity it is supposed to regulate (for example, law making, policy making, implementation, monitoring). Two arguments are made: one meta-theoretical and one substantive. The meta-theoretical argument demonstrates the fruitfulness of adopting a ‘function-sensitive approach’ to political legitimacy to address this aspect. The substantive argument develops the contours of an account of political legitimacy by applying this approach. This account consists of five regulative principles, which are sensitive to, and vary in accordance with, different functions in global politics.
11 发动革命:社交媒体和埃及起义的第一批推动者
【题目】
Launching Revolution: Social Media and the Egyptian Uprising’s First Movers
【作者】
Killian Clarke, Princeton University
【摘要】
基于2011年埃及起义的证据，本文论证了对脸书和推特这两个社媒平台的使用是如何促成离散性动员的结果的，即一系列革命抗议中首次成功的抗议的上演，这里也被称作“先发性动员”。具体而言,本文认为,上述两个社媒平台促成了2011年1月25日的那场大规模、全国性、貌似去中心化的抗议活动的上演，这向犹豫但支持抗议的埃及人暗示了革命可能正在形成。本文利用包括访谈、社媒数据和民调在内的定性及定量证据，分析了将上述社媒平台与1月25日抗议活动的成功联系在一起的三个机制：1)抗议者招募；2)抗议策划和协调；以及3)有关抗议组织工作的实时更新。本文不仅有助于对互联网在阿拉伯之春和其他近期的动员浪潮中所扮演的角色的讨论，还论证了互联网政治领域的学术研究是如何朝着更离散性和基于实证的因果论断的方向发展的。
Drawing on evidence from the 2011 Egyptian uprising, this article demonstrates how the use of two social media platforms – Facebook and Twitter – contributed to a discrete mobilizational outcome: the staging of a successful first protest in a revolutionary cascade, referred to here as ‘first-mover mobilization’. Specifically, it argues that these two platforms facilitated the staging of a large, nationwide and seemingly leaderless protest on 25 January 2011, which signaled to hesitant but sympathetic Egyptians that a revolution might be in the making. It draws on qualitative and quantitative evidence, including interviews,social media data and surveys, to analyze three mechanisms that linked these platforms to the success of the January 25 protest: (1) protester recruitment, (2) protest planning and coordination, and (3) live updating about protest logistics. The article not only contributes to debates about the role of the Internet in the Arab Spring and other recent waves of mobilization, but also demonstrates how scholarship on the Internet in politics might move toward making more discrete, empirically grounded causal claims.
12 公民义务与社区的伦理力量:来自东亚的混合方法证据
【题目】
Citizen Duty and the Ethical Power of Communities: Mixed-Method Evidence from East Asia
【作者】
ARAM HUR，New York University
【摘要】
为什么即便在胁迫程度有限的民主国家，公民也会选择遵从？现有的答案关注契约型信任或预期回报。我论证了在国家的道德吸引力中存在着一种不同的路径。大量政治理论文献认为，即使在没有正式规则的情况下，像国家这样的特殊共同体也可以向集体福利事业灌输一种道德义务。我认为，当一个人的民族和国家身份被视为紧密相联时，这一国民义务就会被政治化并激发一种使人遵从的公民责任感。通过统计建模和在韩国及台湾的对比实验（两个除在民族国家的联系上对比鲜明但在其他方面类似的民主国家），我证明了这种道德路径可能是真实且高度情境化的。这一发现能够帮助我们更好地理解民主国家中的公民服从的不同基础。
Why do citizens choose to comply in democracies, even when coercion is limited? Existing answers focus on contractual trust or expected payoffs. I show that a different pathway exists in the ethical pull of the nation. A large literature in political theory argues that special communities, such as the nation, can instill an ethical obligation to the collective welfare, even in the absence of formal rules. I argue that when the identities of one’s nation and the state are seen as closely linked, this national obligation is politicized towards the state and motivates a sense of citizen duty to comply. Through statistical modeling and a pair of experiments in South Korea versus Taiwan – two otherwise similar democracies that contrast in nation-state linkage – I show that this ethical pathway is likely real and highly contextual. The findings help us better understand the varied bases of citizen compliance in democracies.
13 枪支或钱?作为共同进化网络的防务合作和双边借贷
【题目】
Guns or Money? Defense Co-operation and Bilateral Lending as Coevolving Networks
【作者】
Brandon J Kinne ,University of California
Jonas B. Bunte ,University of Texas at Dallas
【摘要】
国防合作和经济合作有什么关系?为了回答这个问题，本文分析了防务合作协议(DCAs)和政府间贷款的共同演变。本文认为，政府追求两种截然不同的利益。在双边层面，各国政府利用议题联系和旁支付来鼓励防务合作向经济合作溢出，反之亦然。也就是说，各国政府在防务合作协议（DCAs）和贷款上的双边利益在很大程度上是互补的。然而，在网络层面，利益可能会出现分歧。具体来说，政府在利用防务合作协议（DCAs）建立具有共同利益的防务合作伙伴或“安全共同体”的同时，还利用贷款施加不对称形式的政治权威或等级制度。在某些情况下，这些网络层面的利益就像双边利益一样是互补的。例如，防务合作伙伴依靠贷款来协调其外交政策以更好地应对安全威胁，而债务国则依靠贷款模式来确定合适的防务合作伙伴。然而，在其他情况下，这些利益发生了强烈冲突。例如，在贷款网络中高度活跃的政府特别可能依赖于政治权力的非对称行使，这与使用防务合作协议（DCAs）建立防务协作共同体的网络级目标是不一致的。同样，由于其复杂的多边政治承诺，在防务合作协议（DCAs）网络中高度活跃的政府不太容易受到贷款带来的不对称影响。为了实证地检验这些论断，本研究发展了一个多重网络共同演化的纵向模型。总体而言，研究结果表明，虽然经济和防务合作往往会相互加强，但它们有时也会以意想不到的方式相互抵触。
How are defense co-operation and economic co-operation related? To answer this question, this article analyzes the coevolution of defense co-operation agreements (DCAs) and government-to-government loans. It argues that governments pursue two distinct sets of interests. At the bilateral level, governments use issue linkages and side payments to encourage spillover from defense co-operation to economic co-operation, and vice versa. That is, governments’ bilateral interests in DCAs and loans are largely complementary. However, at the network level, interests may diverge. Specifically, governments use DCAs to build clubs of like-minded defense collaborators or ‘security communities’, while they use loans to impose asymmetric forms of political authority or ‘hierarchies’. In some contexts, these network-level interests are, like bilateral interests, complementary. For example, defense partners rely on loans to co-ordinate their foreign policies and better respond to security threats, and debtors rely on lending patterns to identify suitable defense partners. In other cases, however, these interests strongly conflict. For example, governments that are highly active in the loan network are especially likely to rely on asymmetric exercises of political authority, which is incompatible with the network-level goal of using DCAs to establish communities of defense collaborators. Similarly, governments that are highly active in the DCA network are, due to their complex multilateral political commitments, less vulnerable to the asymmetric influences that loans enable. To empirically test these claims, the study develops a longitudinal model of multiplex network coevolution. Overall, the results show that while economic and defense co-operation often reinforce one another, they sometimes conflict in unexpected ways.
14 和平的障碍?种族地理和维持和平的有效性
【题目】
Obstacle to Peace? Ethnic Geography and Effectiveness of Peacekeeping
【作者】
Jessica Di Salvatore, University of Warwick
【摘要】
在什么情况下维持和平能减少内战中的单边暴力?本文认为，地方暴力来源，特别是种族地理，影响着维和的有效性。现有的研究侧重于单独任务的特点，但遏制单边暴力也取决于维和人员减少暴力机会和诱因的能力。摆脱过去的领土控制是民族极化的一个功能的观点,本文认为，维和人员在面对权力不对称(低极化)严重的单边暴力时效率较低，因为他们创造了针对平民的升级动机。另外，他们同样在分离或监测战斗人员方面效率较低。对1997年至2001年联合国驻塞拉利昂特派团的调查表明，联合国部队减少了单方面的暴力，但其效力随着权力不对称的加剧而下降。
Under what conditions does peacekeeping reduce one-sided violence in civil wars? This article argues that local sources of violence, particularly ethnic geography, affect peacekeeping effectiveness. Existing studies focus on the features of individual missions, yet curbing one-sided violence also depends on peacekeepers’ capacity to reduce the opportunities and incentives for violence. Moving from the idea that territorial control is a function of ethnic polarization, the article posits that peacekeepers are less effective against one-sided violence where power asymmetries are large (low polarization) because they (1) create incentives for escalation against civilians and (2) are less effective at separating/monitoring combatants. The UN mission in Sierra Leone from 1997 to 2001 is examined to show that UN troops reduce one-sided violence, but their effectiveness decreases as power asymmetries grow.
编 译：王汉林 田舒宁
审 校：王汉林 田舒宁
相关阅读：
编辑：夏小奇
一审：刘博涵
二审：袁 丁
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